By John Harrington

There’s a lot to be decided this weekend in the final round of Allianz Football League group matches.

It’s worth remembering that when teams finish with equal points for qualification for the concluding stages, or for promotion or relegation, the tie shall be decided by the following means and in the order specified:

(i) Where two Teams only are involved - the outcome of the meeting of the two Teams in the previous game in the Competition;

(ii) Scoring Difference (subtracting the total Scores Against from total Scores For);

(iii) Highest Total Score For;

(iv) Highest Total Goals For;

(iv) A Play-Off

The full Allianz League tables with scoring differences included can be downloaded at the bottom of this article and also found at the following link - https://www.gaa.ie/fixtures-results/tables

DIVISION 1

This weekend’s matches

Donegal v Armagh

Kerry v Tyrone

Mayo v Kildare

Monaghan v Dublin

Kerry have already qualified for the Allianz Football League Division 1 Final thanks to five wins and a draw from six matches, but every other team in the division has a lot to play for this weekend.

Mayo are currently in second place on seven points ahead of Armagh in third place who also have seven points. Because Mayo defeated Armagh in Round 4, they’re ranked above them.

Kildare, Donegal and Tyrone are all on five points which means they still have a chance of qualifying for the Division Final if they win their final match of the League phase this weekend.

Kildare are best placed of the three as they have a scoring difference of +1, whereas Donegal’s is -9 and Tyrone’s is -12.

Mayo (+6) and Armagh (+11) have even healthier scoring differences so it’s still conceivable for one of them to qualify for the League Final even if they lose their match this weekend and end up as one of three or more teams on seven points.

There are many permutations in terms of that race for the second spot in the table, but the simplest of them all is that Mayo will qualify for the Final if they beat Kildare.

A win for Kildare, Donegal, or Tyrone could secure a spot in the League Final depending on how other results go, but defeat could result in relegation, that’s how fine the margins are in Division 1.

Monaghan and Dublin currently occupy the two relegation places on four points each so their meeting in Clones could well be decisive.

There’s a good chance a win for either would see them retain their Division 1 status, but even that’s not guaranteed. If Kildare, Donegal, and Tyrone all win their matches, then both Monaghan and Dublin will be relegated regardless of their result.

Such are the mathematical vagaries in the Division, that both Dublin and Monaghan could survive if they draw their match and at least two out of Tyrone, Donegal, and Kildare lose theirs.

Scoring difference could well be crucial in the final reckoning, so every point scored and conceded will be vital.

Have your calculators at the ready, because Division 1 is going down to the wire.

DIVISION 2

This weekend’s matches

Down v Clare

Meath v Derry

Offaly v Cork

Roscommon v Galway

Galway are already promoted and into the Division Two Final and Down are relegated to Division Three.

Two teams, Roscommon and Derry, are also vying for promotion. Roscommon are currently in second place on 10 points while Derry are third place on nine points.

That being the case, Roscommon will be guaranteed promotion and a place in the Division 2 Final if they can beat Galway on Sunday. Galway are the form team in the division with six wins from six, but Roscommon are also undefeated with four wins and two draws, so it should be a serious match.

The variable in the mix is that Galway have already qualified for the Final so their need isn’t as great as Roscommon’s.

That mental game could also be a factor in Derry’s match against a Meath team who can’t be relegated or promoted so perhaps won’t have the same obvious source of motivation as the Ulster side.

In the event that both Roscommon and Derry finish on 10 points each (by Derry drawing and Roscommon losing this weekend), then the head to head rule won’t apply as they drew their match in Round 5.

Scoring difference would be used to separate them and currently Roscommon’s is a little bit healthier on +31 compared to Derry’s +26.

At the other end of the table, the match between Cork and Offaly will almost certainly decide who drops down to Division 3 along with Down.

A win for either will ensure their own survival while a loss is guaranteed relegation.

There’s a very slight mathematical chance Clare could be relegated, but it’s a highly unlikely scenario.

If they lose to Down and Cork and Offaly draw, then Clare, Cork, and Offaly will all finish on four points each and will be separated by scoring difference.

That shouldn’t be a worry for Clare though as they’re currently in much ruder health in this regards on -7, whereas Cork are on -27 and Offaly are on -34.

DIVISION 3

This weekend’s matches

Antrim v Westmeath

Laois v Longford

Limerick v Fermanagh

Wicklow v Louth

Division 3 is extremely tight with every team having something to play for this weekend.

Louth are currently the table-toppers on nine points and are guaranteed promotion and a place in the League Final if they draw with or defeat Wicklow.

Limerick are in second-place on eight points and they too can clinch promotion with a Round 7 win over Fermanagh.

If either Louth or Limerick don’t win though, then Antrim and Westmeath, currently third and fourth with seven points each, are in a position to take advantage.

They play one another on Sunday, so a win for either could be enough to clinch promotion if other results go their way.

There’s a possible scenario of four teams – Limerick, Antrim, Westmeath, and Fermanagh – all finishing on eight points if Fermanagh beat Limerick and Antrim draw with Westmeath.

Scoring difference would be needed to separate them and currently the hierarchy there is as follows: Antrim +17, Westmeath +11, Limerick +8, and Fermanagh 0. Advantage Antrim in that scenario so, unless Fermanagh somehow manage to defeat Limerick by 18 points.

At the other end of the table, Longford and Wicklow currently occupy the relegation places on three points each, but Laois on five points aren’t safe either.

Were Longford to beat Laois and Wicklow fail to beat Louth, then Laois and Wicklow are relegated because Longford will finish above Laois on the head to head rule.

If Laois beat Longford, then Longford and Wicklow are relegated regardless of how Wicklow do against Louth.

If Longford beat Laois and Wicklow beat Louth, then all three teams will finish on five points each and will need to be separated by scoring difference. That almost certainly means Laois would be the team to stay up because their scoring difference of +4 is currently so much better than Longford’s -21 and Wicklow’s -26.

DIVISION 4

This weekend’s matches

Tipperary v London

Carlow v Wexford

Cavan v Waterford

Sligo v Leitrim

Cavan on 10 points and Tipperary on nine points currently occupy the two promotion spots. Sligo and Leitrim, both on eight points, also go into the final round of fixtures with a chance of breaking into the top two.

The picture will be become clearer by Saturday evening with Tipperary due to host London in FBD Semple Stadium. A win in that match for the Premier County against a London team who are out of the running for promotion will ensure they secure promotion and a place in the Division 4 Final.

Cavan’s destiny is also in their own hands. If they defeat or draw with Waterford, then they too will secure promotion and a place in the Division 4 Final.

Sligo and Leitrim play each other on Sunday and a win for either could see them promoted, but only if other results in the Cavan v Waterford and Tipperary v London games go their way.

If Tipperary are defeated by London, then a draw would be good enough for Sligo to be promoted because if they finish level on nine points with Tipperary and Leitrim their superior scoring difference will see them finish second.

The Head to Head could also come into the picture if two teams finish in second place on 10 points in the event of a Tipperary draw with London and a win for either Sligo or Leitrim.

A draw between Tipperary and London and a win for Sligo would see Tipp promoted. Whereas a draw between Tipperary and London and a win for Leitrim would see Leitrim promoted as Leitrim have previously defeated Tipperary whereas Tipperary have previously defeated Sligo.