Waterford manager Davy Fitzgerald, right, and Limerick manager John Kiely pictured after the 2023 Munster GAA Hurling Senior Championship Round 1 match between Waterford and Limerick at FBD Semple Stadium in Thurles, Tipperary. Photo by Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile
By John Harrington
It’s crunch-time in both the Leinster and Munster Senior Hurling Championships this weekend with Round 5 set to decide which three teams from each province progress to the knock-out stages of the All-Ireland Senior Hurling Championship and which teams contest the provincial finals.
Tipperary are the only team with nothing to play for apart from pride this weekend as there’s no mathematical chance of them finishing in the top three in Munster.
Neither Antrim nor Carlow can finish in the top three in Leinster, but their match on Sunday will decide which team retains their provincial championship status for 2025 and which team drops down to the Joe McDonagh Cup.
Both provinces are very finely balanced so we’ve broken down all the various possible permutations depending on how Sunday’s matches might go.
The top two teams in each province will contest the provincial final with the third-placed team advancing to the preliminary All-Ireland SHC quarter-finals.
The third-placed team in Munster will play the Joe McDonagh Cup champions, while the third-placed team in Leinster will play the Joe McDonagh Cup runners-up.
It is worth noting that if two teams finish on equal points then they will be separated by their head-to-head record, whereas if three teams or more finish on equal points then different rules apply in Leinster and Munster.
In Munster, if three or more teams finish on the same points then the overall scoring difference across all matches involving all teams is applicable, followed by the highest total score for, highest total goals for, and, failing that, a play-off.
In Leinster, if three or more teams finish on the same points then the teams are separated by the number of League Points obtained in the ‘Head-to-Head’ games between those teams, followed by the higher scoring difference in these ‘Head-to-Head’ games, the higher Scoring Difference in all games in the round-robin phase, the higher Scores For in all games in the round-robin phase, and failing that, a play-off.
William O'Donoghue of Limerick in action against Calum Lyons of Waterford during the 2023 Munster GAA Hurling Senior Championship Round 1 match between Waterford and Limerick at FBD Semple Stadium in Thurles, Tipperary. Photo by Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile
MUNSTER
Limerick, Cork, Clare, and Waterford all have a chance of qualifying for the Munster Final but could all also miss out on a top three spot that guarantees progression to the All-Ireland series.
All-Ireland champions Limerick currently top the table on scoring difference ahead of Cork and Clare who are also on four points each, with Waterford on three points.
A draw is enough for Limerick to secure a place in the Munster Final, but if they lose and Clare avoid defeat against Tipperary then they’ll be out of the championship because Cork would move above them on the head-to-head rule.
Waterford can secure a place in the Munster Final if they beat Limerick and a draw would see them finish third if Clare avoid defeat against Tipperary with Cork eliminated on the head to head rule because they lost to Waterford.
If Waterford beat Limerick and Tipperary beat Clare, then Limerick, Clare, and Cork would finish on four points each and in that scenario Clare would be eliminated as they currently have the inferior scoring difference of the three and it would be worsened further by defeat to Tipp. Cork would play Limerick in the Munster Final and Waterford would finish third.
If Waterford are beaten by Limerick, then they’re eliminated from the Championship.
A draw against Tipperary would suffice for Clare to qualify for the Munster Hurling Final regardless of how the result in the Limerick-Waterford match goes.
Liam Ryan of Wexford is tackled by Eoin Cody of Kilkenny during the 2023 Leinster GAA Hurling Senior Championship Round 5 match between Wexford and Kilkenny at Chadwicks Wexford Park in Wexford. Photo by Eóin Noonan/Sportsfile.
LEINSTER
Kilkenny are the only team already guaranteed a place in the All-Ireland series thanks to Leinster GAA’s regulation that the head-to-head ‘League Points’ record would separate three or more teams that finish on the same number of points
If Kilkenny were to lose to Wexford and Galway and Dublin draw, that would leave Kilkenny, Wexford, and Galway level on six points each.
Because Kilkenny beat Dublin and previously drew with Galway, if Dublin and Galway draw this weekend then Kilkenny would have three points, Galway would have two, and Dublin would have one in this ‘mini-league’ of three and so would finish fourth in Leinster and be eliminated.
Kilkenny will qualify for the Leinster Final if they draw or win against Wexford. Wexford will qualify for the final if they beat Kilkenny, but a draw would also be sufficient if Galway and Dublin also draw their game
That would leave Wexford, Galway, and Dublin level on six points, but Wexford would have the superior head-to-head ‘League Points’ from the matches between those three teams.
Wexford previously beat Galway and drew with Dublin so would have three points, Dublin would have two points from drawing with Wexford and Galway, and Galway would have just a single point from drawing with Dublin.
So, in that scenario, Kilkenny and Wexford would contest the Leinster Final, Dublin would finish third, and Galway would be eliminated.
A win for either Galway or Dublin would secure a place in the Leinster final regardless of what happens in the Kilkenny v Wexford match.
If both Kilkenny and Galway win their respective matches, then Dublin and Wexford will be on five points each. As they drew their group match, scoring difference would decide which team finishes third.
Wexford are currently in better shape in this regard with a +9 scoring advantage over Dublin.
If Kilkenny and Wexford draw, the winner of the Dublin v Galway match would join Kilkenny in the Leinster Final and Wexford would finish third.
In the relegation shoot-out at the other end of the table a draw would suffice for Antrim to retain their Liam MacCarthy cup status, whereas only a win is good enough for Carlow.
