Time for action to address 'catastrophic' demographic shift

By John Harrington

Take a look at the map above this article.

It illustrates how almost half of the population of the island lives in a relatively thin sliver down the east coast of Ireland and yet just 18.6% of GAA clubs exist in the same place.

A picture paints a thousand pictures – the rapidly changing demographics of this country is the biggest challenge faced by the Association.

As the population shifts from rural to urban areas, the GAA is losing blood to a double-edged sword.

Rural GAA clubs are struggling to field teams because they just don’t have the numbers, while urban GAA clubs have major issues catering for the surging populations in their catchment areas.

Ireland’s increasing urbanisation is a challenge the GAA has been aware of for a very long time.

Back in 1971 the report of the McNamee Commission noted that “the Association is weakest where the population is increasing; it is strongest where the population is declining.”

In the intervening 54 years the situation has gone from bad to much worse, to the point that the Association is now faced by a “catastrophic” vista.

That’s not hyperbole. It’s the considered view of one of the most informed people on the topic, Chairperson of the GAA’s National Committee on Demographics, Benny Hurl.

“Successive governments have allowed rural depopulation to occur,” Hurl told GAA.ie “More and more and more people are gravitating towards the towns and the cities.

“We are where we are now and we're sleepwalking into something that’s going to be catastrophic.

“We are at a crossroads. There are so many clubs out there that are under huge pressure and it’s not just a rural issue, it’s an urban one too.

Na Fianna and Cuala won the All-Ireland club finals this year but there are plenty of urban clubs out there that are struggling, that have very poor numbers, very poor participation rates, and that's not going to change any time soon unless we do something different.

“I always say that wherever I go the definition of insanity is the doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. One of our committee’s findings is that in some areas our current structures are no longer fit for purpose.

“We have 1,610 clubs now and if there's not some sort of intervention very soon then many of those clubs will no longer be around.

“And when you lose your local GAA club you lose that sense of community. The GAA club is the glue that holds everything together so the local impact of losing a GAA club would be monumental, it would be unimaginable.”

Hurl has a clear-eyed view of the scale of the challenge because the Association has put considerable efforts into quantifying it.

Every county board has a Demographics Officer and Committee who have access to a Data Insights Hub that collates all demographic data relevant to GAA clubs from the Central Statistics Office, the Department of Education, and equivalent bodies in the six counties.

This allows clubs and counties to know the birth-rate and population in their catchment area, how many players they have in their club at any one time at all age-groups, and what the participation rate is compared to the overall population in those age-groups.

The value of this information and ongoing data collection is obvious. For example, if a club knows that the birth-rate in its catchment has plummeted over a sustained period of time, they’ll know they need to start future-planning to ensure the children in their catchment area will have a team to play with.

More and more clubs are experiencing such pinch-points because the birth-rate in Ireland fell by 25% from 2010 to 2023.

So, now that the patient has been diagnosed, how can the patient be helped?

Hurl’s committee has been very proactive in this regard too, and they’ve quickly realised that a flexible approach is required because there’s no cure-all, especially for clubs in rural areas who are struggling for numbers.

Instead, they believe counties could be able to select from a menu of options that would allow them to amend their byelaws according to their needs.

They would be guided and assisted in this regard by the establishment of a centrally and provincially based County and Club Support Unit that would provide guidance, resources, and assistance to clubs to ensure the sustainable growth and efficient management of clubs and counties.

Measures for clubs who are demographically challenged could include smaller-sided games and additional competitions and underage structures to cater for clubs, cross-border competitions based on the Táin Óg principles, and a relaxation of eligibility rules

As for the other side of the coin, the rising population in urban areas, in an ideal world you’d simply establish more GAA clubs there to cater for it but that’s a lot easier said than done.

Setting up a GAA club from scratch is a massive endeavour and there are a couple of obvious obstacles.

GAA people from that area with an affinity to an existing club are not going to be motivated to set up a rival one. And those who come into the area with a strong interest in the GAA will also gravitate towards the existing club as they seek to make connections in a new community.

But one club in a sprawling urban area can only reach so many people, and so the GAA’s market-share of the population shrinks and shrinks.

What can be done?

Hurl believes the lowest hanging fruit in the short-term is to revitalise the many already existing urban clubs that are struggling.

‘Super Clubs’ with huge memberships haven’t just grown in Dublin and other urban sprawls because they’re the only club in their area, they’ve also drained talent from less successful clubs around them.

“In some urban areas you have people driving past clubs to get to the better club,” says Hurl.

“That leads on to the next question, how big is big enough? When you get to three or four or five thousand club members, is that a red flag?

“Is that the moment when you say we have to form another club here? But in the GAA we don't seem to have anything like that.

“There are super clubs springing up in a lot of counties now who are dominating championships at underage and adult level. It's having a detrimental effect on the overall health of the county and other clubs.

“It's a huge problem. I do think there are ways that we can regenerate existing clubs in urban areas before we think about setting up new clubs. There are lots of clubs in urban areas that could do with additional players.”

Regenerating and assisting struggling clubs in urban areas would certainly go some way to reaching a greater proportion of our urban population, but it’s clear too that there is room for new GAA clubs.

There are lots of challenges with doing that, most obviously a lack of green space, but it would be remiss not to acknowledge that one of the greatest obstacles of all is opposition from within.

Everyone in this country would agree that more housing developments are needed to cater for a growing population but many wouldn’t be happy if one sprung up in their ‘back yard’.

A similar sort of ‘NIMBYism’ can exist in the GAA. Even if an existing GAA club in a heavily populated urban area is only capable of reaching a small percentage of the people living there, we have seen some bitterly oppose the establishment of a new one in their area.

Hurl is adamant we’ve reached a demographic tipping point where that sort of self-interest has to be challenged for the greater good.

“I firmly believe we can all survive, but in order for us to all survive we will need to give something,” he says.

“Everybody will need to give something up. The stronger will need to give something to the smaller clubs.

“We need to rise above self-interest for the greater good. When Covid was raging the Government came and knocked on our doors to help the country out, to help deliver the parcels, to help look after the vulnerable and we did that and were brilliant at it. Nobody did it better.

“I would like to think that we could use that spirit that was there in 2020 and 2021 and relive all of that and breathe new life into the Association where it's most needed.”

You’ve surely spotted the elephant in the room by now. The GAA can’t successfully adapt to the challenge of changing demographics without considerable help from the government.

What’s arguably required most of all are planning policies that support GAA clubs by promoting social enterprise developments that sustain rural communities and secure green spaces for badly need facilities in urban areas.

“Recently we would have met with the Office of the Planning Regulator,” says Hurl. “The planning regulator does not form planning policy but they help shape the planning policy and influence Government planners and would highlight what needs done.

“We have also met people from the Department of Education. We would be very keen to bring all of that external Government engagement that we have had to date to the heart of Government and to meet with relevant ministers and say this is how we think you could help us.

“The Government has a rural development policy. It's a very good, well-considered, logical rural development policy and there’s a fund of a billion euros but it's not been spent because it can't be spent.

“For a variety of reasons, people are leaving to these areas and therefore the money can't be drawn down. It's a paradox.

“Could we do things like build a small cluster of houses in accordance with current planning regulations that could sustain a local GAA club? It would support the local shops, the local primary school, and keep everything going.

“We're going to have to come up with initiatives like that where the Government will support us.

“A recent study found that the Social Value of Gaelic games is estimated to be worth at least €2.87 billion to Irish society.

“The GAA is good for the economy and it's good for society. If we were to lose any part of the GAA 10 clubs, 20 clubs, whatever it is, that would not be good for our society.

“The Government are serious supporters of sport. And the GAA needs to be central to all of the discussions that are ongoing in Government.”

In existing urban areas green space is at such a premium already that setting up new GAA clubs is nigh on logistically possible.

But how about the new developments that will be built in the coming decades as the urban sprawl’s tentacles reach further and further?

The Seven Mills development between Clondalkin and Lucan currently under construction will eventually house 15,000. How might the GAA go about establishing clubs in new ‘towns’ like that going forward?

According to the GAA’s Strategy, Insights, and Innovation Manager, Peter Horgan, it might be time to do things in a completely new way.

“We need to take a strategic look at where clubs might be needed,” Horgan told GAA.ie “Where are the growth areas and what will they look like, because the amount of time it takes to grow a club is significant.

“New clubs need a facility. If you try to develop one then you're talking about years between the acquisition of the site, the development of it, the building of the pitches, and that's if you can get a site.

“The reality is that maybe the Association has to do some things that previously might have been unpalatable and might have to make decisions that maybe before would not have been made.”

However palatable or unpalatable the decisions might be, there is no doubt that decisions will have to be made in the short-term that can hopefully address some of the demographic challenges in the long-term.

The problems have been identified, proposed solutions are being drawn up and Benny Hurl believes it’s now time to pull all the levers the GAA has at its disposal because we’re running out of time.

“A huge campaign was run to change the rules of Gaelic football and they seem to be working very well,” he says.

“Two years ago, if someone said there's going to be this raft of rules brought in that's going to transform the game of Gaelic football and be revolutionary we all would have said you're mad but they're here now and people voted for them in huge numbers.

“There's a bigger picture here. If we are being serious about tackling demographic issues, we need to allocate the same level of resources to demographics as we have to the FRC. That's a wee bit provocative on my behalf maybe, but I don't mind that, because it's what's needed.

“We're going to have to do things differently, we're going to have to commit resources.

“Irish society has changed like it has the world over. Where we live has changed. Who we live with has changed. The number of people in our households has changed, but the GAA has stuck fairly rigidly in terms of who you can play with.

“Back to the definition of insanity…if we keep going the way we're going then the GAA at club level is going to be in difficulty and some clubs will go out of business.

“What we're trying to do in our committee is ensure we retain as many of the 1,610 clubs as we can and to maintain our pre-eminent position in Irish society. We’re not alone in this, there are many other committees who have a role to play. The national infrastructure committee, games development, hurling development, planning and training, the amateur status committee etc all have key roles in this.

“I'm an optimist. There's an awful lot we can do, but we need a bit of help, we need everyone to buy in, we need people to give a little, and we need self-interest to be put in the bin. There is hope. The GAA realise that changes are needed if our clubs and communities will continue to survive and thrive and everyone has an important role to play.”

* Benny Hurl is keen to pay tribute to all of the county demographics officers who are working extremely hard in their counties. Benny is especially grateful for the enormous help and support of the current members of the Demographics committee. The committee members are:

Benny Hurl (Tyrone), Chair

Enda Stenson (Leitrim)

Paddy Kelly (Meath)

Liam Lynch (Kerry)

Colm Cummins (Offaly)

Dr. Senan Cooke (Waterford)

Brendan Waters (Dublin)

Katherine Maughan (Mayo)

Conor Weir (Croke Park)

Peter Horgan (Croke Park)